Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Tempe Cascade Eviction Risk: Lower , Mesa
Tract 04013421303 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 5,232 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
With a score of 3.4/10, tract 04013421303 in the Tempe Cascade area of Mesa, AZ reads lower for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,232. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20%
Stable renters 29%
Owners 51%
Tract context
Occupied units1,841
Renter share49.5%
SVI overall0.72
Poverty rate8.4%
Median income$69,297
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
55
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
51
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
49
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mesa and the region
Centroid at 33.4183, -111.8687 · click any tract to drill in
Why Tempe Cascade scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
8.4% poverty · this tract
2.1
Supply constraint
$1,304 rent vs county FMR
1.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
How Tempe Cascade compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 72
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 61%Socioeconomic
- 58%Household composition
- 72%Racial/ethnic minority
- 78%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 817Total filings over 5 yrs
- 10.70%Avg annual filing rate
- 14.7%Peak (2005)
- 202Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 25% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Tempe Cascade. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 15.5%Housing insecurity
- 8.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 20.2%Food insecurity
- 13.2%SNAP enrollment
- 10.7%Transit barriers
- 17.3%No health insurance
- 16.8%Frequent mental distress
- 30.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Tempe Cascade
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.7/10. Average gross rent is $1,304, 20% below the Mesa average.
11% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. 41% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Maricopa County average of 46.0%.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 817 filings here across 5 tracked years. Filings peaked in 2005 at 14.7% of renter households.
In a typical year about 10.7% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 29% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.
It tracks the Maricopa County average of 3.7 closely.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013421303
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013421303?
Census tract 04013421303 in the Tempe Cascade neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013421303?
Median gross rent is $1,304/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013421303?
8.4% of residents in tract 04013421303 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,232.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013421303?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 72th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 61th, household 58th, minority 72th, housing 78th.
Q5
Is tract 04013421303 considered part of Tempe Cascade?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013421303 fall within Tempe Cascade (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013421303?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 817 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013421303 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.70% of renter households, peaking at 14.7% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013421303 struggle to pay rent?
About 15.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013421303 compare to Mesa overall?
Tract 04013421303 scores 3.4/10, right in line with the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mesa
Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04013422106
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422107
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Arizona Cowboy
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Fuller Ranch
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Royal Palm Village
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Fuller Ranch
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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