Within neighborhood
29
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #35,669 of 84,120 nationally
Emery Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson
Tract 04019003707 · Pima, AZ · pop 3,771 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
04019003707 is a census tract in the Emery Park area of Tucson, AZ. It scores 4.8/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,771. 24% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
4.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 25%
Stable renters 25%
Owners 50%
Tract context
Occupied units1,219
Renter share50.0%
SVI overall0.96
Poverty rate20.4%
Median income$59,534
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
56
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
71
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
81
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.1518, -110.9523 · click any tract to drill in
Why Emery Park scores 4.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
20.4% poverty · this tract
5.1
Supply constraint
$921 rent vs county FMR
1.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How Emery Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 96
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 88%Socioeconomic
- 98%Household composition
- 91%Racial/ethnic minority
- 83%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,441Total filings over 12 yrs
- 30.58%Avg annual filing rate
- 63.1%Peak (2005)
- 76Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 53% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Emery Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 26.3%Housing insecurity
- 16.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 36.1%Food insecurity
- 28.1%SNAP enrollment
- 18.4%Transit barriers
- 29.7%No health insurance
- 20.2%Frequent mental distress
- 42.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Emery Park
Adults with no health insurance runs 29.7% against 11.3% nationally. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10.
On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.7/10.
Housing insecurity runs 26.3% against 14.2% nationally. At $921 a month, rents run 20% under what the rest of Tucson commands. about half of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Pima County average of 43.8%.
The poverty rate is 20%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Against the Pima County average of 3.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.9 points.
Court records carry 1,441 eviction filings across 12 observed years. Filings peaked in 2005 at 63.1% of renter households.
In a typical year about 30.6% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 58% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 9.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Statewide the AZ average is 3.8, so this tract runs 1.0 points hotter.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019003707
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019003707?
Census tract 04019003707 in the Emery Park neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019003707?
Median gross rent is $921/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019003707?
20.4% of residents in tract 04019003707 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,771.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019003707?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 96th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 88th, household 98th, minority 91th, housing 83th.
Q5
Is tract 04019003707 considered part of Emery Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019003707 fall within Emery Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019003707?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,441 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019003707 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 30.58% of renter households, peaking at 63.1% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04019003707 struggle to pay rent?
About 26.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 16.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04019003707 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019003707 scores 4.8/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Samos
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Pie Allen
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019003801
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Flowing Wells
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Samos
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Miramonte
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019004117
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
West University
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
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