5 census tracts · pop 21,917 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.1/10
· range 3.5–4.6
Fuller Ranch spans 5 census tracts of Mesa, AZ, population 21,917. The Eviction Risk Score is 4.1/10, in the Moderate tier. Against a Mesa baseline of 32.3%, 59% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.
The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure, at 1/10. 24% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. On the softer side is supply constraint, at 1.8/10.
22.7% of adults carry no health insurance against 11.3% nationally, a common route into sudden unpayable debt. The 5 tracts inside this boundary do not behave alike. Individual scores run 3.5 to 4.6, a 1.1-point gap wide enough that the area average misleads on any specific address.
Average gross rent is $1,330, 18% below the Mesa average of $1,620. Court records carry 2,798 eviction filings across its 5 observed tracts.
Well under the midpoint is tenant-organizing strength, at 2.5/10. The poverty rate is 17%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
Food insecurity affects 29.1% of adults, 11.3 points above the national rate. Filing activity peaked in 2004 at 33.5% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 19.8% in 2005, is well off that peak.
That places it #7 of 33 neighborhoods in Mesa. Social vulnerability runs high at 9.1/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.
Underwrite the address, not the area: with 1.1 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.
Risk score
4.1
Moderate
5 tracts · population-weighted
Fuller Ranch vs MesaHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority72%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport85%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Fuller Ranch
Aggregated across 5 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
2,798Total filings (sum)
18.60%Avg annual filing rate
33.5%Peak year (2004)
19.80%Latest filed (2005)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Fuller Ranch
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
20.4%Housing insecurity
11.9%Utility shutoff threat
28.8%Food insecurity
22.7%SNAP enrollment
22.4%No health insurance
36.7%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Fuller Ranch
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Fuller Ranch?
Fuller Ranch scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier) across 5 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Fuller Ranch compare to Mesa overall?
Fuller Ranch scores 0.9 points higher than Mesa overall (3.2/10). Renters spend 59% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $1,330 vs $1,620.
Q3
What is the average rent in Fuller Ranch?
Average gross rent in Fuller Ranch is $1,330/month (pop-weighted across 5 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Fuller Ranch residents are renters?
52% of Fuller Ranch households are renter-occupied (vs 36% in Mesa). The neighborhood has 21,917 residents.
Q5
Is Fuller Ranch a high social-vulnerability area?
Fuller Ranch sits in the 90th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Fuller Ranch have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Fuller Ranch is census tract 04013421602 (score 4.6/10). Across the 5 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3.5 to 4.6, a spread of 1.1 points.
Q7
How safe is Fuller Ranch for landlords?
Fuller Ranch carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.1/10). Pop-weighted across 5 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Mesa as a whole (3.2/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Fuller Ranch?
Fuller Ranch has 20,991 residents. Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (44.9%), White (non-Hispanic) (41.3%), Other / Multiracial (7.9%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
