Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #42,813 of 84,120 nationally
Tempe Cascade Eviction Risk: Moderate , Mesa
Tract 04013421304 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,099 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
With a score of 4.4/10, tract 04013421304 in the Tempe Cascade area of Mesa, AZ reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,099. Cost burden runs 64% here against 46.0% across Maricopa County.
Risk score
4.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 63%
Stable renters 35%
Owners 2%
Tract context
Occupied units1,756
Renter share97.3%
SVI overall0.78
Poverty rate13.0%
Median income$48,924
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
77
th percentile
High
Within county
72
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
71
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mesa and the region
Centroid at 33.4111, -111.8722 · click any tract to drill in
Why Tempe Cascade scores 4.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
13.0% poverty · this tract
3.2
Supply constraint
$1,481 rent vs county FMR
2.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
How Tempe Cascade compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 78
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 74%Socioeconomic
- 36%Household composition
- 74%Racial/ethnic minority
- 88%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,744Total filings over 5 yrs
- 68.80%Avg annual filing rate
- 104.3%Peak (2005)
- 478Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 55% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Tempe Cascade. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 15.9%Housing insecurity
- 9.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 20.9%Food insecurity
- 14.7%SNAP enrollment
- 12.3%Transit barriers
- 14.3%No health insurance
- 19.4%Frequent mental distress
- 28.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Tempe Cascade
This is renter territory: 97% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
24% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. Annualized rent equals 36% of average household income of $48,924, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.
On the softer side, state political climate reads 2.2/10. The filing record is not thin: 1,744 evictions over 5 years of observation.
It sits 0.7 points above the Maricopa County average of 3.7. Filings peaked in 2005 at 104.3% of renter households. Average gross rent is $1,481, 9% below the Mesa average.
In a typical year about 68.8% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 49% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8/10.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013421304
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013421304?
Census tract 04013421304 in the Tempe Cascade neighborhood scores 4.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013421304?
Median gross rent is $1,481/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013421304?
13.0% of residents in tract 04013421304 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,099.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013421304?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 78th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 74th, household 36th, minority 74th, housing 88th.
Q5
Is tract 04013421304 considered part of Tempe Cascade?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013421304 fall within Tempe Cascade (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013421304?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,744 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013421304 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 68.80% of renter households, peaking at 104.3% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013421304 struggle to pay rent?
About 15.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013421304 compare to Mesa overall?
Tract 04013421304 scores 4.4/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mesa
Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Hohokam Village
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013421902
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422001
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013522802
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
McQueen
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422102
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013941300
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013421302
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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