Neighborhood · Surprise, AZ

Sierra Montana Eviction Risk: Lower

3 census tracts · pop 16,115 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 1.7/10 · range 1.6–2.3

Sierra Montana is a white (non-hispanic) neighborhood in Surprise with 3 census tracts and a population of 16,115 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 1.7/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 50% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 18% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $2,335/month sits 15% higher than the Surprise citywide average ($2,033).

Risk score

1.7

Lower

3 tracts · population-weighted

Sierra Montana vs Surprise How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

50.3% +56%

Surprise: 32.2%

Average gross rent

$2,335 +15%

Surprise: $2,033

Average HH income

$113,895 +22%

Surprise: $93,371

Poverty rate

4.8% -38%

Surprise: 7.8%

Renter share

18.1% -13%

Surprise: 20.9%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Sierra Montana and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 3 tracts span score 1.6–2.3

Why Sierra Montana scores 1.7

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts

2.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.1–5.1 across tracts

5.1

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts

2.5

Rent control risk

50% of income on rent · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts

1.0

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts

2.5

Tenant organizing strength

18% renter households · Range 1.5–1.5 across tracts

1.5

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 2.0–2.0 across tracts

2.0

Economic stress

4.8% below poverty line · Range 1.0–2.1 across tracts

1.6

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 5.6–7.7 across tracts

7.0

Risk score comparison

Sierra Montana vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Sierra Montana?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 0.7 points from 1.6 to 2.3. Tracts are relatively uniform, so conditions feel similar throughout the neighborhood.

Tracts as heat grid

2.3 1.6 1.6

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

3 tracts in Sierra Montana

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
04013061060	2.3	3,083	53%	$2,069
04013061062	1.6	7,752	63%	$2,472
04013061059	1.6	5,280	30%	$2,289

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 27

Pop-weighted across 3 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 29%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 49%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 54%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 16%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Sierra Montana

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

9.9%Housing insecurity
5.7%Utility shutoff threat
12.0%Food insecurity
8.1%SNAP enrollment
9.5%No health insurance
26.0%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Sierra Montana

What is the eviction-risk score for Sierra Montana?

Sierra Montana scores 1.7/10 (Lower tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Sierra Montana compare to Surprise overall?

Sierra Montana scores 0.7 points lower than Surprise overall (2.4/10). Renters spend 50% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $2,335 vs $2,033.

What is the average rent in Sierra Montana?

Average gross rent in Sierra Montana eviction laws is $2,335/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Sierra Montana residents are renters?

18% of Sierra Montana households are renter-occupied (vs 21% in Surprise). The neighborhood has 16,115 residents.

Is Sierra Montana a high social-vulnerability area?

Sierra Montana sits in the 27th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Sierra Montana have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Sierra Montana is census tract 04013061060 (score 2.3/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 1.6 to 2.3, a spread of 0.7 points.

How safe is Sierra Montana for landlords?

Sierra Montana eviction laws carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (1.7/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Surprise as a whole (2.4/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Sierra Montana?

Sierra Montana has 15,923 residents (White (non-Hispanic) Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (61.8%), Hispanic / Latino (20.1%), Other / Multiracial (10.2%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Sierra Montana

2.4 Bell West Ranch 2 tracts · pop 10,747 2.4 Acoma Court 2 tracts · pop 12,271 2.7 Sierra 2 tracts · pop 4,622 2.1 Sanalina 2 tracts · pop 11,617 2.2 Kingswood Parke 2 tracts · pop 6,961 2.2 Veramonte 2 tracts · pop 10,712

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Surprise

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Sierra Montana.

1.7 Happy Trails Resort 1 tracts · pop 4,948 1.5 Sarah Ann Ranch 1 tracts · pop 6,938 1.5 Windstone Ranch 1 tracts · pop 4,482 2.1 Sanalina 2 tracts · pop 11,617 2.1 Veramonte 2 tracts · pop 10,712 1.2 Prasada 1 tracts · pop 4,973

Zoom out