Skip to content
Neighborhood · Surprise, AZ

Sierra Montana Eviction Risk: Lower

3 census tracts · pop 16,115 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3/10 · range 3–3

Sierra Montana takes in 3 census tracts of Surprise, AZ, population 16,115. The Eviction Risk Score is 3/10, in the Lower tier. Cost burden runs 50% against 32.2% citywide, putting Sierra Montana 18.1% over its own city.

The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure, at 1/10. Running cool is tenant-organizing strength, at 1.5/10.

On the softer side is economic stress, at 1.6/10. Severe burden reaches 18%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears.

The voucher gap is 19.7%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears. At $2,335 a month, rents sit 15% over what the rest of Surprise commands. That places it #9 of 16 neighborhoods in Surprise.

At 18% renter-occupied, this is predominantly owner territory, and rental comps have to be drawn from further out. The closest comparables inside the same city are Sarah Ann Ranch and Sanalina.

Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Its 3 tracts score within 0 points of one another, so the area figure travels well to individual addresses. Annual rent works out to 25% of average household income of $113,895.

The area figure travels well to individual addresses here, though the per-tract table below still carries the detail. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.

Risk score
3
Lower
3 tracts · population-weighted
Sierra Montana vs Surprise How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
50.3% +56%
Surprise: 32.2%
Average gross rent
$2,335 +15%
Surprise: $2,033
Average HH income
$113,895 +22%
Surprise: $93,371
Poverty rate
4.8% -38%
Surprise: 7.8%
Renter share
18.1% -13%
Surprise: 20.9%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Sierra Montana and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 3 tracts span score 3–3

Why Sierra Montana scores 3

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts
2.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.1–5.1 across tracts
5.1
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts
2.5
Rent control risk
50% of income on rent · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
18% renter households · Range 1.5–1.5 across tracts
1.5
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 2.0–2.0 across tracts
2.0
Economic stress
4.8% below poverty line · Range 1.0–2.1 across tracts
1.6
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 5.6–7.7 across tracts
7.0
Risk score comparison

Sierra Montana vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Sierra Montana score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Sierra Montana: 3.03.0Sierra MontanaNeighborhoodParent city: 3.23.2Parent cityhost cityState: 3.63.6Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.15.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Sierra Montana?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution
0246810
Spread of 0 points from 3 to 3. Tracts are relatively uniform, so conditions feel similar throughout the neighborhood.
Tracts as heat grid
Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.
Census tracts

3 tracts in Sierra Montana

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
04013061062 3 7,752 63% $2,472
04013061059 3 5,280 30% $2,289
04013061060 3 3,083 53% $2,069
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 27

Pop-weighted across 3 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 29%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 49%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 54%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 16%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Sierra Montana

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Sierra Montana

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Sierra Montana?

Sierra Montana scores 3/10 (Lower tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Sierra Montana compare to Surprise overall?

Sierra Montana scores 0.2 points lower than Surprise overall (3.2/10). Renters spend 50% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $2,335 vs $2,033.
Q3

What is the average rent in Sierra Montana?

Average gross rent in Sierra Montana eviction laws is $2,335/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Sierra Montana residents are renters?

18% of Sierra Montana households are renter-occupied (vs 21% in Surprise). The neighborhood has 16,115 residents.
Q5

Is Sierra Montana a high social-vulnerability area?

Sierra Montana sits in the 27th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Sierra Montana have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Sierra Montana is census tract 04013061062 (score 3/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3 to 3, a spread of 0 points.
Q7

How safe is Sierra Montana for landlords?

Sierra Montana eviction laws carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Surprise as a whole (3.2/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Sierra Montana?

Sierra Montana has 15,923 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (61.8%), Hispanic / Latino (20.1%), Other / Multiracial (10.2%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Sierra Montana

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Surprise

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Sierra Montana.

Zoom out

Up the geography chain · or explore further