Neighborhood · Lake Elsinore, CA

Summerly Eviction Risk: Moderate

2 census tracts · pop 19,630 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.1/10 · range 5–5.1

Summerly is a hispanic-white neighborhood in Lake Elsinore with 2 census tracts and a population of 19,630 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 5.1/10 (Moderate tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 48% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 31% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $1,654/month sits 20% lower than the Lake Elsinore citywide average ($2,078).

Risk score

5.1

Moderate

2 tracts · population-weighted

Summerly vs Lake Elsinore How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

48.0% +35%

Lake Elsinore: 35.5%

Average gross rent

$1,654 -20%

Lake Elsinore: $2,078

Average HH income

$94,187 -2%

Lake Elsinore: $96,527

Poverty rate

14.7% +57%

Lake Elsinore: 9.4%

Renter share

24.8% -15%

Lake Elsinore: 29.1%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Summerly and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 2 tracts span score 5–5.1

Why Summerly scores 5.1

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 6.8–6.8 across tracts

6.8

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.4–5.4 across tracts

5.4

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 5.9–5.9 across tracts

5.9

Rent control risk

48% of income on rent · Range 7.1–8.0 across tracts

7.6

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 6.3–6.9 across tracts

6.7

Tenant organizing strength

25% renter households · Range 5.6–6.2 across tracts

6.0

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 6.5–6.5 across tracts

6.5

Economic stress

14.7% below poverty line · Range 2.9–4.2 across tracts

3.7

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.4–3.3 across tracts

2.2

Risk score comparison

Summerly vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Census tracts

2 tracts in Summerly

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
06065043001	5.1	11,689	57%	$1,478
06065046403	5	7,941	35%	$1,913

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 73

Pop-weighted across 2 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 77%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 51%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 82%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 59%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Summerly

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

20.5%Housing insecurity
10.0%Utility shutoff threat
24.0%Food insecurity
20.5%SNAP enrollment
14.2%No health insurance
36.6%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Summerly

What is the eviction-risk score for Summerly?

Summerly scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Summerly compare to Lake Elsinore overall?

Summerly scores 3.0 points lower than Lake Elsinore overall (8.1/10). Renters spend 48% of income on rent vs 36% citywide. Average rent: $1,654 vs $2,078.

What is the average rent in Summerly?

Average gross rent in Summerly is $1,654/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Summerly residents are renters?

25% of Summerly households are renter-occupied (vs 29% in Lake Elsinore). The neighborhood has 19,630 residents.

Is Summerly a high social-vulnerability area?

Summerly sits in the 73rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Summerly have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Summerly is census tract 06065043001 (score 5.1/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 5 to 5.1, a spread of 0.1 points.

How safe is Summerly for landlords?

Summerly carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.1/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Lake Elsinore as a whole (8.1/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Summerly?

Summerly has 20,535 residents (Hispanic-White Neighborhood). Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (59.1%), White (non-Hispanic) (23.5%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (6.9%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Summerly

3.7 California Oaks 5 tracts · pop 30,317 4.8 Sun City 5 tracts · pop 23,577 2.8 Greer Ranch 2 tracts · pop 11,409 3.9 Menifee Lakes 4 tracts · pop 25,511 3.5 Murrieta Hot Springs 4 tracts · pop 21,517 2.9 Antelope Hills 2 tracts · pop 15,311

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Lake Elsinore

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Summerly.

4.5 Pinnacle 1 tracts · pop 5,257 5.7 North Elsinore 1 tracts · pop 4,760 4.4 Terra Cotta 1 tracts · pop 5,877 3.9 Alberhill Ranch 1 tracts · pop 5,216

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