Frederick Douglass Square Historic District Eviction Risk: High

28% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. Scores across the 19 constituent tracts range from 6.7 to 9.5. A 2.8-point internal spread means block-level underwriting beats area-level here. This is a renter market: 77% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

What pushes the score up most is tenant-organizing strength at 8.5/10. The poverty rate is 30%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Sitting well above the midpoint is rent-regulation exposure at 8/10.

On the high side is eviction-process difficulty at 8/10. Filings are well documented here: 2,241 across 13 observed tracts. Average gross rent is $1,808, 16% below the Boston average of $2,147.

The worst year on record was 2016, when filings touched 8.3% of renter households. Among the 57 mapped neighborhoods of Boston, it ranks #17 by risk, the upper third. Judgments average 0.9% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order.

For a like-for-like read, Bugg Village and Allston Village score within a fraction of it.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 2.8 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.