Neighborhood · Ranked #8,653 of 84,120 nationally

Elmwood Village Eviction Risk: Elevated , Buffalo

Tract 36029006501 · Erie County, NY · pop 2,886 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Census tract 36029006501 covers part of the Elmwood Village area of Buffalo, NY, and scores 7.9/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,886 residents. Cost burden runs 32% here against 44.6% across Erie County.

Risk score

7.9

Elevated

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 20% Stable renters 45% Owners 35%

Tract context

Occupied units1,426

Renter share65.0%

SVI overall0.37

Poverty rate10.4%

Median income$66,711

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Buffalo and the region

Centroid at 42.9178, -78.8826 · click any tract to drill in

Why Elmwood Village scores 7.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Buffalo

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.7

State political climate

New York legislature & governorship

7.3

Economic stress

10.4% poverty · this tract

2.6

Supply constraint

$1,182 rent vs county FMR

5.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

8.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

How Elmwood Village compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 37

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

42%Socioeconomic
13%Household composition
36%Racial/ethnic minority
61%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

4%Grade A
36%Grade B
60%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Elmwood Village. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

11.0%Housing insecurity
6.9%Utility-shutoff threat
11.2%Food insecurity
9.7%SNAP enrollment
7.0%Transit barriers
5.1%No health insurance
16.1%Frequent mental distress
19.1%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Elmwood Village

The score leans hardest on local political climate at 8/10. This is renter territory: 65% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Sitting well above the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10.

Disability prevalence runs 19.1% against 31.5% nationally. The severe-burden share is 14%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Against the Erie County average of 6.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.1 points. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.5/10.

At $1,182 a month, rents run 13% over what the rest of Buffalo commands. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Buffalo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. That is riskier than roughly 90% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

Social vulnerability reads 4.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $66,711.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 36029006501

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36029006501?

Census tract 36029006501 in the Elmwood Village neighborhood scores 7.9/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 36029006501?

Median gross rent is $1,182/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 32% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 36029006501?

10.4% of residents in tract 36029006501 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,886.

How socially vulnerable is tract 36029006501?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 37th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 42th, household 13th, minority 36th, housing 61th.

Is tract 36029006501 considered part of Elmwood Village?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 36029006501 fall within Elmwood Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 36029006501 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 36029006501 compare to Buffalo overall?

Tract 36029006501 scores 7.9/10, right in line with the parent city of Buffalo at 7.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 36029006501 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Buffalo

Top eight tracts in Buffalo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.