Triple Crown Eviction Risk: Lower

The main counterweight is economic stress, at 1/10. On the softer side is rent-regulation exposure, at 2/10. The voucher gap is 19.9%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears.

The severe-burden share is 16%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 5.3% of adults, against 14.2% nationally. The filing record is not thin: 57 evictions logged in this tract.

3.4% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, below a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Against a Durham baseline of 29.4%, about a quarter of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line. Filing activity peaked in 2016 at 4.7% of renter households.

Sitting well above the midpoint is supply constraint at 7/10. The most recent observed rate, 2.4% in 2017, is well off that peak. Among the 58 mapped neighborhoods of Durham, it ranks #44 by risk, the lower third.

Only 12% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin here; price renewals off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 3/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.