Neighborhood · Ranked #79,124 of 84,120 nationally

Estrella Mountain Ranch Eviction Risk: Lower , Goodyear

Tract 04013723309 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 3,875 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

With a score of 5.9/10, tract 04013723309 in the Estrella Mountain Ranch neighborhood of Goodyear ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 3,875 residents. It lands near the 73rd percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 83% of renter households, a severe level, and 12% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,280 monthly, set against $114,150 in average yearly household income, roughly 24% of income at the averages. About 10% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

1.5

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 9% Stable renters 2% Owners 89%

Tract context

Occupied units1,551

Renter share10.4%

SVI overall0.06

Poverty rate1.1%

Median income$114,150

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Goodyear and the region

Centroid at 33.3339, -112.4163 · click any tract to drill in

Why Estrella Mountain Ranch scores 1.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Goodyear

5.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Arizona legislature & governorship

2.2

Economic stress

1.1% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,280 rent vs county FMR

6.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Goodyear

8.3

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

1.6

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Goodyear

5.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Goodyear

5.9

How Estrella Mountain Ranch compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 6

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

33%Socioeconomic
2%Household composition
25%Racial/ethnic minority
10%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Estrella Mountain Ranch. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

7.6%Housing insecurity
4.4%Utility-shutoff threat
8.9%Food insecurity
5.6%SNAP enrollment
5.4%Transit barriers
7.6%No health insurance
13.2%Frequent mental distress
25.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Estrella Mountain Ranch

The score leans hardest on rent-control risk at 8.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Goodyear eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Maricopa County average of 5.1 and above the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 6th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 7.6% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013723309

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013723309?

Census tract 04013723309 in the Estrella Mountain Ranch neighborhood scores 1.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 04013723309?

Median gross rent is $2,280/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 83% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013723309?

1.1% of residents in tract 04013723309 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,875.

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013723309?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 6th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 33th, household 2th, minority 25th, housing 10th.

Is tract 04013723309 considered part of Estrella Mountain Ranch?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013723309 fall within Estrella Mountain Ranch (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 04013723309 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 04013723309 compare to Goodyear overall?

Tract 04013723309 scores 1.5/10, lower than the parent city of Goodyear at 2.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Goodyear eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Goodyear

Top eight tracts in Goodyear ranked by composite eviction-risk score.