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Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Estrella Mountain Ranch Eviction Risk: Lower , Goodyear

Tract 04013723309 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 3,875 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

Census tract 04013723309 covers part of the Estrella Mountain Ranch area of Goodyear, AZ, and scores 3/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,875 residents. Against Maricopa County at 46.0%, 83% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9% Stable renters 2% Owners 89%
Tract context
Occupied units1,551
Renter share10.4%
SVI overall0.06
Poverty rate1.1%
Median income$114,150

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 3 tracts In Estrella Mountain Ranch
Moderate
Within parent city
44 th percentile
Rank, 44th percentileLowHigh
#14 of 24 tracts In Goodyear
Moderate
Within county
9 th percentile
Rank, 9th percentileLowHigh
#921 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Very Low
Within state
40 th percentile
Rank, 40th percentileLowHigh
#1,065 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Goodyear and the region

Centroid at 33.3339, -112.4163 · click any tract to drill in

Why Estrella Mountain Ranch scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Goodyear
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
1.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,280 rent vs county FMR
6.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Goodyear
8.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Goodyear
5.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Goodyear
5.9

How Estrella Mountain Ranch compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Estrella Mountain Ranch risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.03.0This tracttract 723309Goodyear: 4.04.0Goodyearparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 6

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Estrella Mountain Ranch. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Estrella Mountain Ranch

Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.

Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.6/10. The severe-burden share is 12%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

SNAP participation runs 5.6% against 15.2% nationally. The voucher gap is 16.9%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

At $2,280 a month, rents run 17% over what the rest of Goodyear commands. Food insecurity runs 8.9% against 17.8% nationally.

It sits 0.7 points below the Maricopa County average of 3.7. Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

At 10% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 1.5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 1%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013723309

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013723309?

Census tract 04013723309 in the Estrella Mountain Ranch neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013723309?

Median gross rent is $2,280/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 83% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013723309?

1.1% of residents in tract 04013723309 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,875.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013723309?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 6th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 33th, household 2th, minority 25th, housing 10th.
Q5

Is tract 04013723309 considered part of Estrella Mountain Ranch?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013723309 fall within Estrella Mountain Ranch (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 04013723309 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 04013723309 compare to Goodyear overall?

Tract 04013723309 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Goodyear at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Goodyear eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Goodyear

Top eight tracts in Goodyear ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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