Neighborhood · Goodyear, AZ

Estrella Mountain Ranch Eviction Risk: Lower

3 census tracts · pop 8,726 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 1.4/10 · range 1.3–1.5

Estrella Mountain Ranch is a white (non-hispanic) neighborhood in Goodyear with 3 census tracts and a population of 8,726 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 1.4/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 70% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 14% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $2,345/month sits 20% higher than the Goodyear citywide average ($1,956).

Risk score

1.4

Lower

3 tracts · population-weighted

Estrella Mountain Ranch vs Goodyear How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

69.7% +88%

Goodyear: 37.1%

Average gross rent

$2,345 +20%

Goodyear: $1,956

Average HH income

$127,279 +25%

Goodyear: $101,814

Poverty rate

2.7% -53%

Goodyear: 5.8%

Renter share

8.5% -62%

Goodyear: 22.3%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Estrella Mountain Ranch and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 3 tracts span score 1.3–1.5

Why Estrella Mountain Ranch scores 1.4

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts

2.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.1–5.1 across tracts

5.1

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 5.6–5.6 across tracts

5.6

Rent control risk

70% of income on rent · Range 8.3–8.3 across tracts

8.3

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 1.6–1.6 across tracts

1.6

Tenant organizing strength

9% renter households · Range 5.0–5.0 across tracts

5.0

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 5.9–5.9 across tracts

5.9

Economic stress

2.7% below poverty line · Range 1.0–1.2 across tracts

1.1

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 5.4–9.1 across tracts

7.0

Risk score comparison

Estrella Mountain Ranch vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Estrella Mountain Ranch?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 0.2 points from 1.3 to 1.5. Tracts are relatively uniform, so conditions feel similar throughout the neighborhood.

Tracts as heat grid

1.5 1.5 1.3

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

3 tracts in Estrella Mountain Ranch

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
04013723309	1.5	3,875	83%	$2,280
04013723307	1.5	2,341	44%	$2,019
04013723310	1.3	2,510	74%	$2,750

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 6

Pop-weighted across 3 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 22%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 11%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 38%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 7%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Estrella Mountain Ranch

Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

4Total filings (sum)
10.92%Avg annual filing rate
14.0%Peak year (2002)
1.70%Latest filed (2005)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Estrella Mountain Ranch

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

7.5%Housing insecurity
4.4%Utility shutoff threat
9.0%Food insecurity
5.8%SNAP enrollment
7.4%No health insurance
25.5%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Estrella Mountain Ranch

What is the eviction-risk score for Estrella Mountain Ranch?

Estrella Mountain Ranch scores 1.4/10 (Lower tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Estrella Mountain Ranch compare to Goodyear overall?

Estrella Mountain Ranch scores 1.1 points lower than Goodyear overall (2.5/10). Renters spend 70% of income on rent vs 37% citywide. Average rent: $2,345 vs $1,956.

What is the average rent in Estrella Mountain Ranch?

Average gross rent in Estrella Mountain Ranch is $2,345/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 70% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Estrella Mountain Ranch residents are renters?

9% of Estrella Mountain Ranch households are renter-occupied (vs 22% in Goodyear). The neighborhood has 8,726 residents.

Is Estrella Mountain Ranch a high social-vulnerability area?

Estrella Mountain Ranch sits in the 6th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Estrella Mountain Ranch have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Estrella Mountain Ranch is census tract 04013723309 (score 1.5/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 1.3 to 1.5, a spread of 0.2 points.

How safe is Estrella Mountain Ranch for landlords?

Estrella Mountain Ranch carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (1.4/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Goodyear as a whole (2.5/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Estrella Mountain Ranch?

Estrella Mountain Ranch has 9,108 residents (White (non-Hispanic) Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (75.4%), Hispanic / Latino (16.2%), Other / Multiracial (5.8%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Estrella Mountain Ranch

2.2 Estrella Vista 2 tracts · pop 8,052 2 Canyon Trails 3 tracts · pop 14,357 3.9 Litchfield Junction 3 tracts · pop 10,965 3 Coldwater Springs 4 tracts · pop 24,118 1.8 Pebblecreek 3 tracts · pop 18,269 2.9 Valencia 2 tracts · pop 14,063

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Goodyear

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Estrella Mountain Ranch.

1.4 Montecito 1 tracts · pop 4,965 1.8 Pebblecreek 3 tracts · pop 18,269 1.9 Canyon Trails 3 tracts · pop 14,357 2 Estrella Vista 2 tracts · pop 8,052 2.3 Centerra 1 tracts · pop 8,518 3.1 Wildflower Ranch 1 tracts · pop 7,504

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