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Neighborhood · Ranked #80,791 of 84,120 nationally

Estrella Mountain Ranch Eviction Risk: Lower , Goodyear

Tract 04013723310 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 2,510 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

Eviction risk in the Estrella Mountain Ranch neighborhood of Goodyear centers on tract 04013723310, which scores 6.1/10 (Elevated tier) and is home to 2,510 residents. It lands near the 79th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

About 74% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,750 a month while the average household earns $145,676 a year, roughly 23% of income at the averages. About 6% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
1.3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4% Stable renters 1% Owners 95%
Tract context
Occupied units1,088
Renter share5.7%
SVI overall0.02
Poverty rate3.1%
Median income$145,676

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 3 tracts In Estrella Mountain Ranch
Very Low
Within parent city
13 th percentile
Rank, 13th percentileLowHigh
#21 of 24 tracts In Goodyear
Very Low
Within county
6 th percentile
Rank, 6th percentileLowHigh
#947 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Very Low
Within state
5 th percentile
Rank, 5th percentileLowHigh
#1,683 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Goodyear and the region

Centroid at 33.3336, -112.4368 · click any tract to drill in

Why Estrella Mountain Ranch scores 1.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Goodyear
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
3.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,750 rent vs county FMR
9.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Goodyear
8.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Goodyear
5.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Goodyear
5.9

How Estrella Mountain Ranch compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Estrella Mountain Ranch risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.31.3This tracttract 723310Goodyear: 2.52.5Goodyearparent cityCounty: 3.33.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.63.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 2

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Estrella Mountain Ranch. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Estrella Mountain Ranch

What moves this score most is supply constraint at 9.1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Goodyear eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Maricopa County average of 5.1 and above the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 7.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 2nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013723310

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013723310?

Census tract 04013723310 in the Estrella Mountain Ranch neighborhood scores 1.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013723310?

Median gross rent is $2,750/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 74% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013723310?

3.1% of residents in tract 04013723310 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,510.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013723310?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 2th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 8th, household 4th, minority 46th, housing 5th.
Q5

Is tract 04013723310 considered part of Estrella Mountain Ranch?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013723310 fall within Estrella Mountain Ranch (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 04013723310 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 04013723310 compare to Goodyear overall?

Tract 04013723310 scores 1.3/10, lower than the parent city of Goodyear at 2.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Goodyear eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Goodyear

Top eight tracts in Goodyear ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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