Neighborhood · Ranked #32,842 of 84,120 nationally

Alexandria Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 51510200703 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 3,809 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

51510200703 is a census tract in the Alexandria Historic District area of Alexandria, VA. It scores 5/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,809. Against Alexandria City at 41.2%, 29% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Risk score

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 18% Stable renters 44% Owners 38%

Tract context

Occupied units1,964

Renter share61.4%

SVI overall0.12

Poverty rate5.4%

Median income$144,835

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Alexandria and the region

Centroid at 38.7972, -77.0566 · click any tract to drill in

Why Alexandria Historic District scores 5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Alexandria

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.1

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

5.4% poverty · this tract

1.3

Supply constraint

$2,148 rent vs county FMR

4.3

Rent control risk

Inherited from Alexandria

3.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Alexandria

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Alexandria

5.5

How Alexandria Historic District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 12

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

16%Socioeconomic
2%Household composition
59%Racial/ethnic minority
44%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Alexandria Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

7.0%Housing insecurity
4.6%Utility-shutoff threat
6.8%Food insecurity
5.0%SNAP enrollment
4.6%Transit barriers
5.0%No health insurance
13.8%Frequent mental distress
20.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Alexandria Historic District

The clearest offset is economic stress at 1.3/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10.

The severe-burden share is 18%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.1/10. Food insecurity runs 6.8% against 17.8% nationally.

Housing insecurity runs 7.0% against 14.2% nationally. Against the Alexandria City average of 5.7, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.7 points.

That is riskier than roughly 61% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 2.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Against average income of $144,835, annual rent is just 18%.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51510200703

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200703?

Census tract 51510200703 in the Alexandria Historic District neighborhood scores 5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51510200703?

Median gross rent is $2,148/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 29% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200703?

5.4% of residents in tract 51510200703 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,809.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200703?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 12th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 16th, household 2th, minority 59th, housing 44th.

Is tract 51510200703 considered part of Alexandria Historic District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200703 fall within Alexandria Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51510200703 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51510200703 compare to Alexandria overall?

Tract 51510200703 scores 5/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria

Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.