Neighborhood · Ranked #68,306 of 84,120 nationally

Alexandria Historic District Eviction Risk: Lower

Tract 51510201802 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 2,013 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Eviction risk in the Alexandria Historic District neighborhood of Alexandria centers on tract 51510201802, which scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier) and is home to 2,013 residents. That is riskier than about 59% of US census tracts.

23% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a moderate level, and 14% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average household income is about $164,432 a year. About 37% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

2.4

Lower

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 8% Stable renters 28% Owners 64%

Tract context

Occupied units987

Renter share36.6%

SVI overall0.12

Poverty rate14.0%

Median income$164,432

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Alexandria and the region

Centroid at 38.8074, -77.0425 · click any tract to drill in

Why Alexandria Historic District scores 2.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Alexandria

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.1

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

14.0% poverty · this tract

3.5

Supply constraint

tract rent vs county FMR

5.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Alexandria

3.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Alexandria

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Alexandria

5.5

How Alexandria Historic District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 12

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

9%Socioeconomic
29%Household composition
57%Racial/ethnic minority
13%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Alexandria Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

7.5%Housing insecurity
5.4%Utility-shutoff threat
8.8%Food insecurity
7.5%SNAP enrollment
5.4%Transit barriers
5.4%No health insurance
13.4%Frequent mental distress
27.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Alexandria Historic District

What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 6.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Alexandria City County average of 5.9 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 12th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 7.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51510201802

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510201802?

Census tract 51510201802 in the Alexandria Historic District neighborhood scores 2.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51510201802?

14.0% of residents in tract 51510201802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,013.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51510201802?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 12th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 9th, household 29th, minority 57th, housing 13th.

Is tract 51510201802 considered part of Alexandria Historic District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510201802 fall within Alexandria Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51510201802 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51510201802 compare to Alexandria overall?

Tract 51510201802 scores 2.4/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria

Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.