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Neighborhood · Ranked #31,049 of 84,120 nationally

Alexandria Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 51510201805 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 3,542 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

With a score of 5.1/10, tract 51510201805 in the Alexandria Historic District area of Alexandria, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,542 residents. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 8.4/10.

Risk score
5.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20% Stable renters 31% Owners 49%
Tract context
Occupied units2,485
Renter share50.3%
SVI overall0.14
Poverty rate6.7%
Median income$150,272

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 5 tracts In Alexandria Historic District
Moderate
Within parent city
36 th percentile
Rank, 36th percentileLowHigh
#31 of 48 tracts In Alexandria
Low
Within county
38 th percentile
Rank, 38th percentileLowHigh
#30 of 48 tracts In Alexandria city
Low
Within state
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#473 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Alexandria and the region

Centroid at 38.8149, -77.0420 · click any tract to drill in

Why Alexandria Historic District scores 5.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Alexandria
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.7% poverty · this tract
1.7
Supply constraint
$2,396 rent vs county FMR
5.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Alexandria
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Alexandria
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Alexandria
5.5

How Alexandria Historic District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Alexandria Historic District risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.1This tracttract 2018055.9Alexandriaparent city5.7Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 14

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Alexandria Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Alexandria Historic District

Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.7/10. 17% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.1/10. SNAP participation runs 4.5% against 15.2% nationally. At $2,396 a month, rents run 15% over what the rest of Alexandria commands.

Against the Alexandria City average of 5.7, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.6 points. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.7% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Nationally it ranks #31,049 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 0.9 points hotter.

Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51510201805

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510201805?

Census tract 51510201805 in the Alexandria Historic District neighborhood scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51510201805?

Median gross rent is $2,396/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 39% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51510201805?

6.7% of residents in tract 51510201805 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,542.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51510201805?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 14th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 7th, household 10th, minority 45th, housing 47th.
Q5

Is tract 51510201805 considered part of Alexandria Historic District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510201805 fall within Alexandria Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51510201805 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51510201805 compare to Alexandria overall?

Tract 51510201805 scores 5.1/10, lower than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria

Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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