Within neighborhood
25
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #54,934 of 84,120 nationally
Tempe Cascade Eviction Risk: Lower , Mesa
Tract 04013421202 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 3,576 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
For landlords sizing up Tempe Cascade in Mesa, census tract 04013421202 carries a moderate eviction-risk score of $1/10. That is riskier than about 40% of US census tracts.
48% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 23% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,124 a month against an average household income of $83,281 a year, roughly 16% of income at the averages. About 29% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
3.2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 71%
Tract context
Occupied units1,429
Renter share28.8%
SVI overall0.67
Poverty rate15.0%
Median income$83,281
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
62
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
53
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
43
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mesa and the region
Centroid at 33.4270, -111.8633 · click any tract to drill in
Why Tempe Cascade scores 3.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
15.0% poverty · this tract
3.7
Supply constraint
$1,124 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
How Tempe Cascade compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 67
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 60%Socioeconomic
- 29%Household composition
- 64%Racial/ethnic minority
- 84%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 394Total filings over 5 yrs
- 8.13%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.7%Peak (2001)
- 67Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 27% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Tempe Cascade. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.5%Housing insecurity
- 7.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 17.4%Food insecurity
- 12.1%SNAP enrollment
- 9.5%Transit barriers
- 14.3%No health insurance
- 16.4%Frequent mental distress
- 29.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Tempe Cascade
The score leans hardest on economic stress at 3.7/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Mesa eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Maricopa County average of 5.1 and in line with the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 394 eviction filings here over 5 tracked years, with about 8.1% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 9.7% of renter households in 2001.
In CDC survey modeling, about 13.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013421202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013421202?
Census tract 04013421202 in the Tempe Cascade neighborhood scores 3.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013421202?
Median gross rent is $1,124/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013421202?
15.0% of residents in tract 04013421202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,576.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013421202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 67th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 60th, household 29th, minority 64th, housing 84th.
Q5
Is tract 04013421202 considered part of Tempe Cascade?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013421202 fall within Tempe Cascade (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013421202?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 394 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013421202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.13% of renter households, peaking at 9.7% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013421202 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013421202 compare to Mesa overall?
Tract 04013421202 scores 3.2/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 2.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mesa
Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04013941300
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Fuller Ranch
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013421902
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Culdesac Tempe
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422107
4.7
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
4.7
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013421302
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
McQueen
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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