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Neighborhood · San Diego, CA

Carmel Valley Eviction Risk: Elevated

4 census tracts · pop 15,303 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 7.2/10 · range 7.2–7.2

Carmel Valley spans 4 census tracts of San Diego, CA, population 15,303. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 7.2/10, in the Elevated tier. Average gross rent is $3,148, 36% above the San Diego average of $2,313.

The main counterweight is economic stress, at 1.1/10. Against a San Diego baseline of 32.4%, 41% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line. Severe burden reaches 19%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears.

On the high side is rent-regulation exposure at 8/10. Sitting well above the midpoint is eviction-process difficulty at 8/10. 3.1% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, below a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

SNAP participation is 4.9% of households versus 15.2% nationally. Among the 89 mapped neighborhoods of San Diego, it ranks #79 by risk, the lower third.

Rent takes 19% of average household income, comfortably inside the 30% line and unusually low for a rental sub-market. Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. The 4 tracts here are tightly clustered, 0 points apart at the extremes.

34% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

With little internal variation, 7.2/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.

Risk score
7.2
Elevated
4 tracts · population-weighted
Carmel Valley vs San Diego How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
40.5% +25%
San Diego: 32.4%
Average gross rent
$3,148 +36%
San Diego: $2,313
Average HH income
$199,760 +91%
San Diego: $104,321
Poverty rate
3.6% -68%
San Diego: 11.1%
Renter share
33.7% -36%
San Diego: 52.7%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Carmel Valley and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 4 tracts span score 7.2–7.2

Why Carmel Valley scores 7.2

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 6.8–6.8 across tracts
6.8
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 6.1–6.1 across tracts
6.1
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 7.5–7.5 across tracts
7.5
Rent control risk
41% of income on rent · Range 8.0–8.0 across tracts
8.0
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 8.0–8.0 across tracts
8.0
Tenant organizing strength
34% renter households · Range 7.0–7.0 across tracts
7.0
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 7.5–7.5 across tracts
7.5
Economic stress
3.6% below poverty line · Range 1.0–1.4 across tracts
1.1
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 4.9–7.2 across tracts
5.9
Risk score comparison

Carmel Valley vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Carmel Valley score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Carmel Valley: 7.27.2Carmel ValleyNeighborhoodParent city: 8.68.6Parent cityhost cityState: 7.67.6Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.15.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Carmel Valley?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution
0246810
Spread of 0 points from 7.2 to 7.2. Tracts are relatively uniform, so conditions feel similar throughout the neighborhood.
Tracts as heat grid
Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.
Census tracts

4 tracts in Carmel Valley

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
06073008330 7.2 4,560 46% $3,024
06073008369 7.2 4,221 53% $3,321
06073021501 7.2 3,855 15% $2,862
06073008331 7.2 2,667 48% $3,501
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 17

Pop-weighted across 4 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 11%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 42%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 63%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 15%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Carmel Valley

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Carmel Valley

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Carmel Valley?

Carmel Valley scores 7.2/10 (Elevated tier) across 4 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Carmel Valley compare to San Diego overall?

Carmel Valley scores 1.4 points lower than San Diego overall (8.6/10). Renters spend 41% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $3,148 vs $2,313.
Q3

What is the average rent in Carmel Valley?

Average gross rent in Carmel Valley is $3,148/month (pop-weighted across 4 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Carmel Valley residents are renters?

34% of Carmel Valley households are renter-occupied (vs 53% in San Diego). The neighborhood has 15,303 residents.
Q5

Is Carmel Valley a high social-vulnerability area?

Carmel Valley sits in the 17th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Carmel Valley have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Carmel Valley is census tract 06073008330 (score 7.2/10). Across the 4 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 7.2 to 7.2, a spread of 0 points.
Q7

How safe is Carmel Valley for landlords?

Carmel Valley carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (7.2/10). Pop-weighted across 4 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to San Diego as a whole (8.6/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Carmel Valley?

Carmel Valley has 16,158 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (51.8%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (30.7%), Hispanic / Latino (11.5%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Carmel Valley

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside San Diego

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Carmel Valley.

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