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Neighborhood · Mesa, AZ

Suntrails Eviction Risk: Moderate

2 census tracts · pop 11,086 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.0/10 · range 4.9–5.1

Suntrails is a white (non-hispanic) neighborhood in Mesa with 2 census tracts and a population of 11,086 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 5.0/10 (Moderate tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 54% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 31% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Median gross rent of $1,801/month sits 11% higher than the Mesa citywide median ($1,620).

Risk score
5.0
Moderate
2 tracts · population-weighted
Suntrails vs Mesa How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
54.0% +67%
Mesa: 32.3%
Average gross rent
$1,801 +11%
Mesa: $1,620
Average HH income
$85,651 +9%
Mesa: $78,779
Poverty rate
9.1% -13%
Mesa: 10.5%
Renter share
36.1% +1%
Mesa: 35.6%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Suntrails and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 2 tracts span score 4.9–5.1

Why Suntrails scores 5.0

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts
2.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.1–5.1 across tracts
5.1
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 3.5–3.5 across tracts
3.5
Rent control risk
54% of income on rent · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.0–3.0 across tracts
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
36% renter households · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts
2.5
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts
2.5
Economic stress
9.1% below poverty line · Range 1.4–2.9 across tracts
2.3
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 4.2–4.3 across tracts
4.2
Risk score comparison

Suntrails vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Suntrails score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Suntrails: 5.05.0SuntrailsNeighborhoodParent city: 3.13.1Parent cityhost cityState: 4.04.0Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.35.3U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

2 tracts in Suntrails

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
04013422501 5.1 6,368 58% $1,794
04013422514 4.9 4,718 49% $1,810
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 50

Pop-weighted across 2 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 55%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 35%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 53%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 47%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Suntrails

Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 462Total filings (sum)
  • 12.19%Avg annual filing rate
  • 15.8%Peak year (2005)
  • 10.59%Latest filed (2005)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Suntrails

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Suntrails

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Suntrails?

Suntrails scores 5.0/10 (Moderate tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

Q2

How does Suntrails compare to Mesa overall?

Suntrails scores 1.9 points higher than Mesa overall (3.1/10). Renters spend 54% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Median rent: $1,801 vs $1,620.

Q3

What is the average rent in Suntrails?

Median gross rent in Suntrails is $1,801/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.

Q4

What percentage of Suntrails residents are renters?

36% of Suntrails households are renter-occupied (vs 36% in Mesa). The neighborhood has 11,086 residents.

Q5

Is Suntrails a high social-vulnerability area?

Suntrails sits in the 50th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Q6

Which tracts in Suntrails have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Suntrails is census tract 04013422501 (score 5.1/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 4.9 to 5.1 — a spread of 0.2 points.

Q7

How safe is Suntrails for landlords?

Suntrails carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.0/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Mesa as a whole (3.1/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Suntrails?

Suntrails has 10,899 residents (White (non-Hispanic) Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (62.4%), Hispanic / Latino (26.7%), Black (non-Hispanic) (5.1%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Suntrails

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Mesa

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Suntrails.

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