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Neighborhood · Mesa, AZ

Suntrails Eviction Risk: Lower

2 census tracts · pop 11,086 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3.1/10 · range 3–3.2

Suntrails takes in 2 census tracts of Mesa, AZ and houses 11,086 people. Scored across those inputs it reaches 3.1/10, placing it in the Lower tier. Cost burden runs 54% against 32.3% citywide, putting Suntrails 21.7% over its own city.

31% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure, at 1/10. Well under the midpoint is economic stress, at 2.3/10.

Filings are well documented here: 462 across 2 observed tracts. On the softer side is tenant-organizing strength, at 2.5/10.

Filing activity peaked in 2005 at 15.8% of renter households. At $1,801 a month, rents sit 11% over what the rest of Mesa commands. That places it #20 of 33 neighborhoods in Mesa.

Judgments average 5.4% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. The 2 tracts here are tightly clustered, 0.2 points apart at the extremes. Annual rent works out to 25% of average household income of $85,651.

36% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

With little internal variation, 3.1/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.

Risk score
3.1
Lower
2 tracts · population-weighted
Suntrails vs Mesa How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
54.0% +67%
Mesa: 32.3%
Average gross rent
$1,801 +11%
Mesa: $1,620
Average HH income
$85,651 +9%
Mesa: $78,779
Poverty rate
9.1% -13%
Mesa: 10.5%
Renter share
36.1% +1%
Mesa: 35.6%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Suntrails and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 2 tracts span score 3–3.2

Why Suntrails scores 3.1

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts
2.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.1–5.1 across tracts
5.1
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 3.5–3.5 across tracts
3.5
Rent control risk
54% of income on rent · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.0–3.0 across tracts
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
36% renter households · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts
2.5
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts
2.5
Economic stress
9.1% below poverty line · Range 1.4–2.9 across tracts
2.3
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 4.2–4.3 across tracts
4.2
Risk score comparison

Suntrails vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Suntrails score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Suntrails: 3.13.1SuntrailsNeighborhoodParent city: 3.23.2Parent cityhost cityState: 3.63.6Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.15.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

2 tracts in Suntrails

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
04013422501 3.2 6,368 58% $1,794
04013422514 3 4,718 49% $1,810
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 50

Pop-weighted across 2 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 55%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 35%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 53%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 47%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Suntrails

Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 462Total filings (sum)
  • 12.19%Avg annual filing rate
  • 15.8%Peak year (2005)
  • 10.59%Latest filed (2005)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Suntrails

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Suntrails

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Suntrails?

Suntrails scores 3.1/10 (Lower tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Suntrails compare to Mesa overall?

Suntrails scores 0.1 points lower than Mesa overall (3.2/10). Renters spend 54% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $1,801 vs $1,620.
Q3

What is the average rent in Suntrails?

Average gross rent in Suntrails is $1,801/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Suntrails residents are renters?

36% of Suntrails households are renter-occupied (vs 36% in Mesa). The neighborhood has 11,086 residents.
Q5

Is Suntrails a high social-vulnerability area?

Suntrails sits in the 50th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Suntrails have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Suntrails is census tract 04013422501 (score 3.2/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3 to 3.2, a spread of 0.2 points.
Q7

How safe is Suntrails for landlords?

Suntrails carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3.1/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Mesa as a whole (3.2/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Suntrails?

Suntrails has 10,899 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (62.4%), Hispanic / Latino (26.7%), Black (non-Hispanic) (5.1%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Suntrails

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Mesa

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Suntrails.

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